Exxon and Chevron racked up $100 billion in profits this year and the Republicans singing the inflation blues took back the House , so the heavy lifting is done as far as the Rs are concerned.
Powell isn't done yet, because he has not beaten down the labor force as he said he wants to do, just like Volker in the 80's. He wants to reduce wages, not just keep increases modest.
This is the goal of the billionaire class and the corporate leaders who can't stand the idea of higher wages cutting into their profits, not even a little bit. The recent increases in union organizing have got the wealthy elites shaking in their booties. The illegal anti-union efforts of Amazon and Starbucks show just how worried they are.
The Fed is going to engineer a recession and they know it. That will increase unemployment and create the the desperate workers who will take any job for far less than they are worth. The only question is how deep a recession we will have and whether it will qualify as a depression.
The Fed may have a hard time to engineer a recession since higher interest rates will eventually add huge amounts of new net money (interest income) into the economy. I’m not sure about the kind of expenditures this will entail (higher demand for Volvos?) since the bond savers are people who already have money. So, some sectors will make more revenue and profit adding to GDP.
I'm not sure the amount of net new money will be all that huge and, unless it is spent, it won't have any effect on GDP. As you noted, it will be going to those who don't really need it. Since those folks have a low marginal propensity to consume I think most of it will go to savings.
I think a much larger effect will be a reduction in consumption by the non-rich as their debts become more expensive to service. As the reduction in spending works its way back through the production process companies will cut back on production and lay off workers which will cut spending even more and that's the negative feedback loop that leads to recession.
Powell is focused on reducing worker's wages and he doesn't care if a recession is the result. He and his wealthy cohorts won't lose their jobs, and they'll get the benefit of higher interest rates on their investments. Any increase in debt service for them will be trivial.
Inflation has not yet slowed to a crawl. Ask any parent leaving the grocery store. It may eventually slow but we're not there yet. I'd be careful relying on Blinder's analyses. He and Krugman run a close race for who is wrong more.
Commodity prices support this analysis. WTI oil is right now about where it was a year ago. Lumber (which has fluctuated wildly) is down. Sugar has come down dramatically and is about where it was a year ago. Copper is below where it was a year ago.
Not all commodities are down but there is no systemic rise in prices. Prices at the consumer level have some #greedflation built in as companies have taken advantage of 'inflation' in the air to raise prices (and as a result profits have increased dramatically).
There is no need for any monetary policy tightening--so if it keeps happening the only explanation left is that the intention is to cause a recession.
Ask the common folks who shop at the grocery store and other retail stores weekly and they will tell inflation is not abating. GET OUT OF YOUR IVY TOWERS YOU EGG HEADS and see what is really going on !
I am grateful to see other people who have noticed that expenses are increasing at an alarming rate. I’ve been stunned speechless at the prices of groceries, for starters. Gas prices are lower than their all time high but they are still high. Utilities costs are climbing. Don’t get me started on healthcare costs -- they’ve increased while access to care has decreased. The wages offered are still ridiculously low, which is why positions aren’t getting filled. Is that calculated in the unemployment statistics? No. If you are not actively looking for a (crummy) job, then the numbers are sunny! I had the foolish idea that I could retire as I approach 70, but I’ll have to take one of those lousy jobs to manage the increasing costs.
The truth is that the federal reserve really shouldn't get any credit at all for the recent inflation numbers. Especially when their rate hikes don't address the main causes of inflation to begin with. From supply chains, the war in Ukraine, and corporate profiteering.
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Exxon and Chevron racked up $100 billion in profits this year and the Republicans singing the inflation blues took back the House , so the heavy lifting is done as far as the Rs are concerned.
Yes, but probably too much to ask. Orthodoxies are hard to overcome.
In her recent book "The Capital Order" Clara Mattei, describes the establishments use of austerity to control the workforce.
As Powell, Summers, and others keep saying, the Fed needs to keep going until unemployment rises.
That has everything to do with inciting insecurity in the workforce, and nothing to do with inflation.
Powell isn't done yet, because he has not beaten down the labor force as he said he wants to do, just like Volker in the 80's. He wants to reduce wages, not just keep increases modest.
This is the goal of the billionaire class and the corporate leaders who can't stand the idea of higher wages cutting into their profits, not even a little bit. The recent increases in union organizing have got the wealthy elites shaking in their booties. The illegal anti-union efforts of Amazon and Starbucks show just how worried they are.
The Fed is going to engineer a recession and they know it. That will increase unemployment and create the the desperate workers who will take any job for far less than they are worth. The only question is how deep a recession we will have and whether it will qualify as a depression.
I am not sanguine about the prospects.
The Fed may have a hard time to engineer a recession since higher interest rates will eventually add huge amounts of new net money (interest income) into the economy. I’m not sure about the kind of expenditures this will entail (higher demand for Volvos?) since the bond savers are people who already have money. So, some sectors will make more revenue and profit adding to GDP.
I'm not sure the amount of net new money will be all that huge and, unless it is spent, it won't have any effect on GDP. As you noted, it will be going to those who don't really need it. Since those folks have a low marginal propensity to consume I think most of it will go to savings.
I think a much larger effect will be a reduction in consumption by the non-rich as their debts become more expensive to service. As the reduction in spending works its way back through the production process companies will cut back on production and lay off workers which will cut spending even more and that's the negative feedback loop that leads to recession.
Powell is focused on reducing worker's wages and he doesn't care if a recession is the result. He and his wealthy cohorts won't lose their jobs, and they'll get the benefit of higher interest rates on their investments. Any increase in debt service for them will be trivial.
Inflation has not yet slowed to a crawl. Ask any parent leaving the grocery store. It may eventually slow but we're not there yet. I'd be careful relying on Blinder's analyses. He and Krugman run a close race for who is wrong more.
Commodity prices support this analysis. WTI oil is right now about where it was a year ago. Lumber (which has fluctuated wildly) is down. Sugar has come down dramatically and is about where it was a year ago. Copper is below where it was a year ago.
Not all commodities are down but there is no systemic rise in prices. Prices at the consumer level have some #greedflation built in as companies have taken advantage of 'inflation' in the air to raise prices (and as a result profits have increased dramatically).
There is no need for any monetary policy tightening--so if it keeps happening the only explanation left is that the intention is to cause a recession.
Ask the common folks who shop at the grocery store and other retail stores weekly and they will tell inflation is not abating. GET OUT OF YOUR IVY TOWERS YOU EGG HEADS and see what is really going on !
I am grateful to see other people who have noticed that expenses are increasing at an alarming rate. I’ve been stunned speechless at the prices of groceries, for starters. Gas prices are lower than their all time high but they are still high. Utilities costs are climbing. Don’t get me started on healthcare costs -- they’ve increased while access to care has decreased. The wages offered are still ridiculously low, which is why positions aren’t getting filled. Is that calculated in the unemployment statistics? No. If you are not actively looking for a (crummy) job, then the numbers are sunny! I had the foolish idea that I could retire as I approach 70, but I’ll have to take one of those lousy jobs to manage the increasing costs.
The truth is that the federal reserve really shouldn't get any credit at all for the recent inflation numbers. Especially when their rate hikes don't address the main causes of inflation to begin with. From supply chains, the war in Ukraine, and corporate profiteering.