Happy New Year and thank you for subscribing to The Lens. It’s truly an honor to share this forum with you. I look forward to delivering a lot more content in the new year as this becomes the primary outlet for my research and writing.
I also hope you’ll consider using Substack’s new Chat feature to interact with me.
In addition to writing for you here at The Lens, I’m working on a new book. As a subscriber, you’ll get to read bits and pieces of the manuscript (and share your feedback) along the way. It’s a journey we can take together!
Looking ahead, inflation appears to be receding into the rearview mirror as the risk of recession becomes the dominant economic concern in 2023. The big worry is that the Fed will go too far (many believe it already has), hiking another 75 basis points or so, even as the incoming economic data suggest that the battle against inflation has already been won. There is deflation in core goods, the housing market is rolling over, and core services ex-housing is decelerating nicely. Inflation expectations (for those who worry about such things) show no sign of becoming “unanchored” and there is no evidence of a wage-price spiral taking hold. Here’s a nice look at where we are from the Roosevelt Institute’s Mike Konczal.
I had the chance to talk about inflation and the economic outlook for 2023 on Bloomberg TV and CNBC’s Squawk Box last week.
With your continued interest, I’ll do my best to make sense of the economy in the new year.
The man caused climate change crisis is the worst & most planet threatening crisis we ever faced. We must stop burning fossil fuels! And I speak to the need from coal addicted West Virginian.
In Canada the central bank is saying “wait and see” regarding any further interest rate increases but it is pretty clear they have gone too far.
The human cost of a recession that was and is unnecessary makes me both sad and angry.
How long is it going to take for us to realize the Climate Emergency is the only issue on the agenda?
I wish all a happy and safe new year, remembering that 2022 is likely the coldest year we will experience over the coming decade.